From anonymous preliminary to million-dollar main event: McGregor and Holloway close the cycle 13 years later.

Conor McGregor (left) returns to the UFC against Max Holloway (dir.). Photo: Montage/SL

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On July 11th, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas will host one of the most anticipated events in recent sports history. On the main night of UFC 329, during International Fight Week, Conor McGregor e Max Holloway They face each other again, thirteen years after their only encounter, a night in Boston that, at the time, seemed like just another preliminary fight, but which time has transformed into one of the most emblematic confrontations ever held inside an octagon.

When the announcement was made during the broadcast of ufc vegas 117On May 16th, the immediate reaction was not one of surprise, but of relief. McGregor was back. Officially. After five years and three weeks without competing, the longest absence of his career, the 37-year-old Irishman has a date set, a confirmed opponent, and a defined weight class: welterweight, with a limit of 77 kilograms.

The news arrived at the exact moment when Francis Ngannou He was doing his walkout at a Most Valuable Promotions event in partnership with Netflix. The timing did not go unnoticed by Jake Paul"The cocaine addict is back. Cool, bro. Advertise during our event. Doesn't matter. This just shows how desperate they are, insecure little boys trying to elevate their event by putting news over ours," Paul said at a press conference. In practice, the UFC had hijacked the night's news with a single announcement.

Those who have been keeping a close eye on the fight since the announcement are the bettors. UFC 329 betting The markets have been moving for weeks, with odds that reflect not only the history of the two fighters, but mainly the weight of the Irishman's five years of inactivity, a period in which Holloway fought eight times in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, always against elite opponents.

For those who want to follow the developments in more depth, the Stake.bet.br It offers detailed markets for the event, including method of victory, exact round, and round-by-round performance—options that go far beyond the final result and make following the fight more interesting.

The rematch will take place in a division new to Holloway: the welterweight division, seven kilos above the lightweight division where the Hawaiian has been competing in recent years. A variable that, as will be seen later, divides opinions even among those who know both fighters well.

Boston, 2013: when two future champions unknowingly shared a preliminary round.

To understand what's at stake in July, you have to go back to TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts, on a Saturday in August 2013.

It was the 17th. The main fight of the night would be... Chael Sonnen finishing off Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. At the top of the preliminary fights, Michael McDonald knocked out [opponent]. Brad pickettSomewhere in the middle of the card, two young men, unknown to the general public, stepped into the octagon without anyone knowing exactly what was about to happen.

McGregor He was 25 years old and had only one UFC victory, a knockout over Marcus Brimage in Sweden months earlier. Holloway, then 21, entered the fight with a 3-2 record in the organization. Neither of them was even close to the main event. But the Irishman already brought with him something that didn't fit on his resume: a documentary crew followed him through the streets of Boston in the days leading up to the fight; the arena lights were dimmed for his entrance, an unusual treatment for a preliminary card fighter; he entered to the sound of "I'm Shipping Up To Boston" by the Dropkick Murphys, to a crowd full of Irish flags in a city with deep historical roots in Ireland.

"Why am I promoting this guy? Why am I betting on him? Because I love what he represents," Dana White said at the time, according to ESPN.

Inside the octagon, McGregor's unusual boxing created immediate problems for Holloway in the first round. An uppercut in the second round suggested the knockout that much of the audience expected, but it didn't come. The fight moved to the ground in the second half of the bout, with McGregor maintaining enough control to win on all three judges' scorecards. His record was 14-2, with 2-0 in the UFC.

What the public didn't know was that McGregor had injured his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) during the fight. “When we got back to our feet, I was staggering. So, in the third round I had to change my strategy and go for the takedown. I'm not happy I didn't finish him,” he declared after the fight. The injury kept him out for ten months. When he returned, he went straight to a main event in Dublin, where he knocked out his opponent. Diego Brandao.

For Holloway, that loss was the turning point. What followed was one of the most impressive streaks in featherweight history: 13 consecutive wins, the division's belt, two title defenses, and the most significant strikes landed and knockout victories in the category's history.

Thirteen years of opposing paths, now heading towards a reunion.

The careers of the two athletes diverged completely after that night in Boston, and that makes the... UFC 329 even more interesting.

McGregor became the biggest commercial phenomenon MMA has ever produced. The first fighter in UFC history to hold two belts simultaneously, the Irishman was champion in both the featherweight and lightweight divisions. He headlined the four highest-grossing pay-per-view events in MMA history. His boxing match against Floyd Mayweather in 2017 is the second highest-grossing PPV in combat sports history, behind only Mayweather vs. Pacquiao. His current record stands at 22 wins (19 by knockout) and six losses.

Holloway, 34, has built something different: longevity in the elite. His record reaches... UFC 329 with 27 wins and nine losses. After consolidating his dominance in the featherweight division, he moved up to lightweight and made history by knocking out... Justin gaethje in the last second of the main fight of UFC 300In one of the most talked-about moments in sports in recent years, he won the BMF ("Baddest Motherf****") belt. In March of this year, he lost the title to Charles "do Bronx" Oliveira by unanimous decision at UFC 326, after five rounds dominated by the Brazilian in grappling.

Statistically, Holloway is an offensive machine. He lands an average of 6,91 significant strikes per minute, with 48% accuracy. Throughout his career, he has landed 7.647 significant strikes, connecting on 3.681. He has won 48% of his fights by decision and 44% by knockout. His striking defense is 59%, with 81% takedown defense efficiency.

McGregor's offensive numbers are more modest in volume, reflecting significantly shorter fights. His average fight time is just 8 minutes and 2 seconds, compared to Holloway's 16 minutes and 39 seconds. But his average knockdowns per fight is 1,73, the highest of the two, and his striking accuracy reaches 50%. He boasts an 86% win rate by knockout or TKO.

What does Rogan think about McGregor's return?

No one in the MMA universe combines technical authority and skepticism regarding McGregor's return like Joe Rogan. In different episodes of his podcast, the official UFC commentator has built a narrative of genuine concern about the Irishman's physical and mental state.

“I don’t know if Conor will fight again. He’s partying a lot. He talked about cocaine during the legal process. But there’s also the issue of brain damage suffered in training and fights. Many fighters, especially at the end of their careers, resort to drugs,” Rogan stated in 2024. On another occasion, he was more direct: “What’s really sad is if he comes back at 39 or 40 and his body simply doesn’t respond anymore.”

The caveat gains weight when considering what McGregor has experienced outside the octagon in recent years. The Irishman faced a civil lawsuit for sexual assault related to a 2018 incident, having been found guilty by a jury in 2024. A second lawsuit, related to an alleged incident in Miami in 2023, was dismissed without trial at the end of last year. In 2023, he was accused of assaulting a woman on his yacht in Ibiza. In early 2025, he uttered racist insults on social media against his former rival. Khabib NurmagomedovLast October, he received an 18-month suspension from the UFC's anti-doping program, effective retroactively to September 20, 2024, making him eligible to compete from March 20 of this year.

Paradoxically, it was Rogan himself who, in 2016, constructed one of the most accurate descriptions of what McGregor represents: “Conor is a special human being. There aren’t many people who come along in any generation with that kind of impact on any sport. It’s not just the fighting ability, it’s the mind, the charisma, the ability to articulate things.” Conor McGregor "It is a unique being in history."

The tension between these two perspectives—the genius who revolutionized MMA and the 37-year-old fighter with five years of inactivity and a turbulent extracurricular history—is precisely what makes the... UFC 329 It's about something beyond a simple revenge.

Poirier sees Holloway ahead, but with a caveat.

One of the few athletes to have faced both, McGregor three times and Holloway twice, Dustin poirier He delivered his analysis during an appearance on the UFC on Paramount program: the advantage goes to the Hawaiian, but with an important variable at the center of the equation.

“When I last fought him at lightweight, he already had power in his strikes. I imagine that at welterweight, he will have even more power. Max now hits hard, he's not just a volume fighter, he can finish fights,” declared Poirier.

The American knows both sides of the conversation well. He has a favorable record against McGregor, with two wins in three fights, including the knockout in... UFC 257 and the TKO victory in UFC 264, the fight in which the Irishman suffered the leg fracture that kept him out of the octagon for more than four years.

But doubts about Holloway's power in divisions above featherweight are nothing new. When the Hawaiian was confirmed against Justin gaethje No. UFC 300In 2024, Joe Rogan expressed similar skepticism, based on Holloway's loss to Poirier in the lightweight division in 2019. Dustin poirier "He dominated him at 55 pounds. I think those guys are a little too big," Rogan said. Holloway responded by knocking out Gaethje in the final second. Now the same question resurfaces, in a weight class seven pounds heavier than the one in which the knockout... UFC 300 it happened.

The odds and the heated exchanges that made everything even more heated.

The bookmakers have already decided on their favorites, and the disparity is considerable. McGregor appears as a strong underdog, with odds of +475, while Holloway is the big favorite, with odds of -450. The difference mainly reflects the Irishman's inactivity, five years without competing compared to Holloway's eight fights in the same period, all against elite athletes. It's worth remembering that Holloway's most recent defeat, to Oliveira at UFC 326, weighs little compared to almost half a decade without entering the octagon.

Hours after the official announcement, McGregor went straight to the point: “I’m going to make you my son, boy. Again. You’re going to have to earn some respect for my name.” Holloway didn’t hesitate: “No, kid, you’re the one who’s going to have to earn some respect for my name. We’ll find out Saturday night.”

The dynamic is new even though the characters are the same. In 2013McGregor was the obvious favorite: more experienced, older, with more fights in the UFC. Now the hierarchy has reversed. Holloway arrives with eight fights in the last five years. McGregor arrives without having competed since July 2021.

The full card and what's at stake in July.

O UFC 329 It also includes the fight between Paddy Pimblett e Benoit Saint-Denis in the lightweight division. Completing the card are: Cory Sandhagen x mario bautista in roosters, Brandon royval x Lone'er Kavanagh in the flyweights, Gable Steveson x Elisha Ellison in the heavyweights, and Robert whittaker x Nikita Krylov in light heavyweights.

Boston, 2013, finally gets an answer: this time in the welterweight division, in Las Vegas, before an audience that will pay to find out if the McGregor of 2026 is still the same man who turned out the lights at TD Garden thirteen years ago, or if Holloway, the young man who lost that night and built an entire career on that defeat, has already surpassed the Irishman.

Less than two months to go. The broadcast will be live and exclusive on Paramount+.